Anxiety among procurement and supply chain leaders is at record levels, as fears about global trade tensions, inflation and supplier instability combine to create hugely challenging conditions for businesses, new analysis shows.
Released on 11 April, the latest Pulse Survey from the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), which has over 64,000 members globally, makes for tough reading for companies involved in international trade.
Undertaken at the end of March, it finds that respondents’ “average concern level” about supply chain shortages over the next 12 months has risen to a record high of 4.91 out of 7, a figure that represents an increase compared to the 4.63 recorded in the first quarter of 2024. The average concern level in the final three months of 2024 was 4.5.
Anxiety about these same shortages across the next three months has increased as well, jumping to 4.36 compared to a score of 4.1 in the preceding quarter. Respondents now view US protectionism – a new category within the survey – as a major threat, and are also expecting double-digit price rises in shipping and logistics.
“This quarter’s Pulse reveals a critical tipping point,” the CEO of CIPS, Ben Farrell, says. “The combination of rising protectionism, new tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical shocks are reshaping global supply strategies in real time,” he adds. “Our members aren’t just predicting disruption, they’re living through it and rapidly adjusting their operations.”
The publication of the CIPS’s first quarterly survey of 2025 comes at a time when global stock and bond markets have been roiled by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on a host of major economies, from China and Japan to the EU and UK.
While Trump announced a 90-day pause on a significant chunk of these tariffs on 9 April – a “baseline” levy of 10% remains in place – he has imposed a 125% tariff on Chinese goods. For its part, China has introduced an 84% tariff on US products, due to rise to 125% from 12 April.
Although the survey was conducted before Trump detailed his tariff plans on 2 April, companies have been busy preparing themselves for the fallout of his policy.
“One third of respondents were already taking proactive measures to offset the impact of tariff introductions before the latest round of announcements from the United States,” CIPS, which is headquartered in the UK, says.
In a sign of how companies’ priorities are shifting, cybercrime, which was viewed as a “top three” risk to supply chains in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, has now slumped to fifth place, with Farrell cautioning that firms are at risk of taking their eye off the ball when it comes to “other key areas of business.”
With trade tensions showing no sign of letting up, it should come as no surprise that businesses have been working hard to protect themselves.
“In response to growing instability, organisations are doubling down on core resilience strategies,” CIPS says. “The results highlight that proactive steps to manage tariff impacts were well underway throughout Q1,” it adds.
“Half of the respondents were reviewing relationships across their supply chains or exploring nearshoring/friendshoring options – demonstrating the depth of strategic realignment taking place globally.”