Global trade could be on course for a record year and exceed US$35tn, UN Trade and Development’s (Unctad) final Global Trade Update for 2025 has shown, with a range of factors underpinning growth over the past 12 months.
According to an Unctad statement issued on 9 December, the period between July and September saw global trade increase by 2.5% compared to the preceding three months.
“Goods rose nearly 2%, services 4%,” Unctad said. “Growth is expected to continue in the year’s final quarter, though at a slower pace: 0.5% for goods and 2% for services.”
“If projections hold, goods would add about US$1.5tn to this year’s total and services US$750bn, consistent with an overall 7% annual increase.” Unctad’s US$35tn figure represents a notable jump compared to last year – the body previously reported that global trade hit US$33tn in 2024.
Regional drivers
The forecast for 2025 has been influenced by East Asia and Africa, Unctad noted. “East Asia recorded the strongest export growth over the past year (9%), supported by a 10% surge in intra-regional trade,” it said.
Africa, it added, had seen imports and exports increase by 10% and 6%, respectively. “South-South trade expanded around 8%, reflecting deepening economic ties among developing economies.”
Looking at sectors, manufacturing – notably electronics – helped to drive growth, increasing by 3% in Q3. The automotive sector, however, saw trade slump by 1% in the same timeframe. Agriculture enjoyed a strong Q3, with exports both cereals and fruit and vegetables increasing by 11%.
Looming headwinds
Unctad’s analysis comes at a time when international trade has been disrupted by multiple challenges, with economies large and small working hard to adjust to new ways of doing business.
Despite the prospect of a record year for trade, the UN body’s analysis highlighted several factors that it described as “hindering the trade outlook”, including geopolitical tensions and conflicts, increasing trade costs, and continuing uncertainty regarding US trade policy.
“Looking ahead, momentum is expected to weaken in 2026,” it said. “Slower global growth, rising debt, higher trade costs and continued uncertainty are likely to weigh on trade flows.”