Global shipping and trade disruptions are expected to be negligible after the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, by US special forces on 3 January, according to analysts.
“History shows that transitions post these types of regimes in Latin America can be messy and not reflective of immediate market reactions,” said Veronica Munoz De Andrea, Navigator Global’s ecosystem development director for South America.
Maduro and Flores are currently in custody in the US after appearing in a New York City court on 5 January, where they pleaded not guilty to drugs and weapons charges.
Maduro has previously said that such charges were a tool to further “imperial” plans to gain access to Venezuela’s oil reserves, the largest proven reserve in the world at 303bn barrels, according to the BBC.
Despite the drugs and weapons charges against Maduro and his wife, in a Truth Social post on 6 January, President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela will turn over between 30mn and 50mn barrels of oil to the US, valued at about US$2.8bn.
“I am pleased to announce that the Interim Authorities in Venezuela will be turning over between 30 and 50 MILLION Barrels of High Quality, Sanctioned Oil, to the United States of America. This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” Trump wrote in the post.
As part of the operation, codenamed “Operation Absolute Resolve”, airstrikes targeted military infrastructure and also damaged La Guaira port, Venezuela’s second-largest container port, Bloomberg reported.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said in a statement to Bloomberg that the closure of La Guaira would delay the delivery of cargo for importers and exporters.
“Venezuela is a relatively small container market and capacity can be partially rerouted through the Port of Cabello, about 60 miles west,” Levine said.
“We don’t expect knock-on effects for regional or global container shipping,” he added.
Lars Jensen, the CEO of Denmark-based consultancy Vespucci Maritime, also believes the impact on global shipping and trade will be “negligible” – and localised to Venezuela.
“Hypothetically, should trade stop (it won’t), there will be no impact on global supply/demand,” Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post published on 4 January.
“There are no transhipment hubs involved and the major sailing routes for container vessels do not go through Venezuelan territory,” he added.
Meanwhile, Ruth Benbow, Navigator Global’s ecosystem development director for North America, said it was too soon to tell how the military operation could impact trade flows in the region.
Benbow noted that members of the Trump administration had made “broad overtures” regarding opportunities in the rebuilding and modernisation of Venezuela's extractive sectors.
However, the US and others, such as the European Union and the UK, maintain sanctions against parts of the Venezuelan market, which make activity in the country extremely restrictive, she added.
“SMEs may be able to access interesting opportunities in the region if the complex web of sanctions currently in place is relaxed,” Benbow said.
“I am cautiously optimistic that the geopolitical forces will shift enough to make the opportunities being floated a reality for many businesses across the global industrial supply chain. It is certainly a dynamic start to trade in 2026.”
Munoz De Andrea agreed, saying that, aside from oil, there might be opportunities in tourism and retail as companies and airlines are able to resume normal operations.
This would pave the way for new investments, Munoz De Andrea added.
“These investments for reconstruction and reviving different sectors of the economy could trickle down supply chains, but, again, it is very difficult to assess how trade is going to look in 2026,” Munoz De Andrea said.