The World Trade Organization (WTO) has updated its global trade outlook for 2025, projecting that it will now grow by 0.9%, up from its forecast of a -0.2% contraction in April.

The revision follows an 11% year-on-year surge in US imports in the first half of 2025 due to frontloading and inventory accumulation as companies moved to offset President Donald Trump’s looming tariffs.

However, Trump’s increased tariffs will dampen trade in the second half of 2025 and in 2026, the WTO warned in the revised report on 8 August.

“Global trade has shown resilience in the face of persistent shocks, including recent tariff hikes,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the WTO.

“Frontloaded imports and improved macroeconomic conditions have provided a modest lift to the 2025 outlook. However, the full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding.”

Trump’s latest round of tariffs, announced on 7 August, targets more than 90 countries with levies ranging from 10% to 50%.

The president also said that he planned to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports but would exempt chipmakers if they move production facilities to the US, while pharmaceutical imports could be hit with a 250% levy.

In April, Trump announced sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs against most countries as part of his “America First” policy, which aims to boost US manufacturing. This was followed by months of global market chaos amid a raft of reversals and 90-day pauses.

“The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

“Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment. Nevertheless, it is important that a broader cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation that could be very damaging to global trade has so far been avoided,” she added.

Asian economies are expected to remain the largest driver of world goods trade volume growth in 2025, with exports projected to rise by a stronger-than-expected 4.9%, up from 1.6% in the April forecast, according to the WTO update.

Europe’s export and import growth this year of -0.9% and 0.4% respectively will be “slightly weaker than we predicted in April, while North America’s exports will be less negative at -4.2%”, the WTO said.

“Higher ‘reciprocal’ tariff rates introduced on 7 August are expected to weigh increasingly on imports in the United States and depress exports of its trading partners in the second half of 2025 and in 2026,” the WTO added.